Then the clouds part,
Swallows soaring between;
The spring is alive,
And the meadows are green!
This week I was asked to dinner with Vince Cable (Deputy Leader of the Liberal Democrats) to give him an update on Cambridge hi-tech industry. It was a large dinner, but Vince circulated between tables and I wound up being sat next to him for about half an hour.
Vince used to be Chief Economist for Shell, so I mentioned that Arie de Geus has been coaching some of our local CEOs on scenario planning through our Cambridge Leaders Academy, and talked a bit about the companies involved including ANT, ARM, CSR, Jagex, Redgate... He turned out to have worked closely with Arie on scenario planning in Shell in the 1970s. We discussed the positive impact that the strengthening dollar is having for local exporters and I pointed out that our local hi techs often have 70%+ of their revenues from export and are bringing money into the country.
In his open seminar earlier in the evening, Vince had pointed out that whatever government is elected will have to make very large spending cuts. He asked for our input. Exporting businesses locally are being constrained in their growth by congestion. Our local Regional Development Agency, EEDA, has always had relatively low budget compared to Northern RDAs, and flat cuts across the whole country would stall infrastructure investments in transport here. Initially Vince joked that Cambridge had always been congested (he was an undergraduate here), but he did agree that infrastructure was a government responsibility.
Vince had also mentioned earlier in the evening that he had been involved in "picking winners" in the Labour government of the 1970's and that had been a failure. I mentioned our concerns that emerging industries where Cambridge research had given local companies a lead (organic semiconductors, stem cells...) needed financial backing here or we might lose them to incentives offered elsewhere (e.g. Germany's Spitzencluster programme). Vince was sceptical. Many industry lobbies are threatening to relocate elsewhere unless they are subsidized here. I pointed out that our hi-tech companies have a track record of generating revenues with whatever support they are given.
It really was a privilege to get a chance to chat to Vince in the pressures of a general election campaign. Scenario planning gave Shell an advantage because their decision-making processes were better able to cope with the stresses of the oil shock of the 1970. Whatever the financial storms our country faces, we need to help our leaders understand the impact that our region can have.
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